Gross Domestic Product expanded in 4Q22 at an annualized rate of 2.9%, in line with our forecast. NFLX,PYPL,META,GPN,PARA,HCA,NYT,IVZ,FIS,OXY,TSLA,CAT,ATVI,SPLK,EQIX,ISRG,GE,AIG,CRM,MARĪccording to the "advance" estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC. Activists have made progress in the past quarter with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as Walt Disney and Salesforce. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in for 4Q22. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of The Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. We think the central bank may well be lowering rates if the jobless rate rises above the 4.0-4.5% level over the next few quarters. While the latest jobs reports have been consistent with GDP growth, we think that the full impact of the Fed's decisions over the past year have yet to be felt in the economy. What's more, the Fed has another mandate besides keeping inflation low: it is also supposed to promote maximum employment. But oil continues to trend downward on global economic weakness, despite threats of production cuts from OPEC, and we don't see the need to keep rates high if inflation trends down toward 3.0%. Yes, shelter and transportation costs remain stubbornly high. Our forecast calls for the Fed to keep its target rate steady for the balance of the year as inflation continues to moderate. Three voters (plotters?) think there should be even more increases after that. According to the latest fed funds "dot plot" forecasts by the governors, the central bank's new target for the rate at year-end is 5.63%. All 12 governors were in agreement for the decision, as inflation has moderated over the past year (the latest core CPI reading was 4.0% and the latest core PCE Price Index reading was 4.4% - both still well above the Fed's target of 2.0%). This pause came after 10 consecutive increases by the central bank over a period of 15 months. The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, decided to maintain its current fed funds target rate of 5.00%-5.25%.
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